Boise Homes: Pending Sales Trends

Pending sales of Boise homes are an indicator of future closed sales.

Here’s a breakdown of 2014 year-to-date pending sales.

  • January: 813
    % Change: (baseline number)
  • February: 897
    % Change: +10.3%
  • March: 993
    % Change: +10.7%
  • April: 1,177
    % Change: +18.5%
  • May: 1,143
    % Change: -2.9%
  • June: 1,114
    % Change: -2.5%
  • July: 971
    % Change:  -12.8%
  • August: 898
    % Change:  -7.5%
  • September: 914
    % Change: +1.8%

Takeaways

  • September’s pending sales were only 1.8% greater than August’s pending sales, indicating flattening activity.
  • Pending sales typically rise during our Spring market and continue to be relatively strong throughout our Summer market, but that didn’t happen this year.
  • Downtrending pending sales from May through August led to 8.9% fewer closed sales in September.
  • Our Fall market is often stronger than our Summer market, so perhaps we will see a further uptick in  pending sales during October and November.

Data pertains to Ada County single-family homes on lot or acreage.  

Data does not include condo or townhome properties.

 

Boise Idaho Real Estate Stats – September 2014

Here’s a snapshot of September’s activity for Boise, Idaho real estate (Ada County):

Boise Idaho Available Homes

  • # Available: 2,879
  • Average Asking Price: $314,050
  • Median Asking Price: $248,764
  • Months’ Supply: 3.8

Boise Idaho Pending Sales

  • # Pending: 914
  • Average Asking Price: $271,158
  • Median Asking Price: $225,000

Boise Idaho Closed Sales –September 2013

  • # Closed: 720
  • Average Sales Price: $235,281
  • Median Sales Price: $195,000

Boise Idaho Closed Sales – September 2014

  • # Closed: 656
    % Change: -8.9%
  • Average Sales Price: $238,828
    % Change: +1.5%
  • Median Sales Price: $204,900
    % Change: +5.1%

Data taken from Intermountain MLS on 10/5/14 and pertains to Ada County, Idaho single-family residences on lot or acreage.

Data does not include condominiums or townhomes.

Months’ Supply = available listings divided by average monthly closed sales for the past six months.

 

Boise Homes: YTD Market Comparison

Everyone wants to know how our current Boise real estate market compares to last year’s market.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison of available listings, pending sales, and closed sales for the first nine months of 2013 vs. 2014.

Boise Homes: Available Listings

  • 9/30/13: 2,579
  • 9/30/14: 2,838
    % Change: +10.0%

Boise Homes: Pending Sales

  • 9/30/13: 917
  • 9/30/14: 925
    % Change: +.9%

Boise Homes: 2013 Closed Sales

  • # Closed: 6,361
  • Average Sales Price: $230,831
  • Median Sales Price: $195,000

Boise Homes: 2014 Closed Sales

  • # Closed: 6,063
    % Change: -4.7%
  • Average Sales Price: $243,698
    % Change: +5.6%
  • Median Sales Price: $209,900
    % Change: +7.6%

Takeaways

  • Our listing inventory has increased by 10.0%, resulting in more competition for sellers and more choices for buyers.
  • Our pending sales are flat year-over-year.
  • Our 2014 YTD closed sales are down 4.7%.
  • Our average and median sales prices are up modestly.
  • Our average and median prices will probably moderate with higher listing inventory and declining sales as we approach our slower winter market.
  • Our slower winter market could also result in lower listing inventory due to sellers delaying listing until next Spring.

Data pertains to Ada County single-family homes on lot or acreage.

Data does not include condo or townhome properties.

Time period = January 1st thru September 30th of each year.

 

Boise Homes: This Summer vs. Last Summer

Here’s an interesting comparison of Boise home sales for Summer 2013 vs. Summer 2014.

Boise Homes: Available Listings

  • August 31, 2013: 2,487
  • August 31, 2014: 2,950
  • % Change: +18.6%

Boise Homes: Pending Sales

  • August 31, 2013: 1,059
  • August 31, 2014: 898
  • % Change: -15.2%

Boise Homes: Closed Sales

  • June – August, 2013: 818
  • June – August, 2014: 752
  • % Change: -8.1%

Boise Homes: Average Sales Price

  • August 31, 2013: $237,819
  • August 31, 2014: $254,053
  • % Change: +6.8%

Boise Homes: Median Sales Price

  • August 31, 2013: $201,917
  • August 31, 2014: $218,745
  • % Change: +8.3%

Takeaways

  • Our listing inventory increased, resulting in more competition for sellers and more choices for buyers.
  • Our pending sales declined during one of our busiest selling seasons, which is not a positive indicator.
  • Lower pending sales now will almost certainly lead to lower closed sales in the next 30-60 days.
  • Average and median sales prices increased (modestly).
  • Prices cannot continue to rise when combined with fewer pending/closed sales.
  • Our market is leveling off after a major recovery from “the bottom” in Spring 2011.

Data pertains to Ada County single-family homes on lot or acreage. Data does not include condo or townhome properties.

 

Why Boise Homes Are Taking Longer To Sell

More than a few Boise home sellers are wondering why their homes aren’t selling.

The simple truth is that our market has changed ~ dramatically.

We had a big party in 2013 with low listing inventory, eager buyers, and multiple offers.

At the end of May 2013, we had 1,802 homes for sale in MLS.

As of this morning, we have 2,985 homes for sale in MLS.

That’s a stunning 65.7% increase in available listings.

At the end of May 2013, we had 1,434 pending sales (sales in escrow; awaiting closing).

As of this morning, we have 917 pending sales.

That’s a 36.1% decline in pending sales.

Further, our pending sales have declined over each of the past four months ~ during our busy summer selling season.

Our pending sales, at the end of August, were equal to those of last February.

Is this the end of the world?

Is the Boise real estate market crashing?

Absolutely not!

Our market is simply leveling off after going on a tear since bottoming out in the Spring of 2011.

Our overall market has about four months’ supply of listing inventory, which is a healthy market.

Our distress sales are mostly behind us and homes are still selling; albeit at a more moderate and rational pace.

Most areas of the country would love to have a market like ours with four months’ supply of listings and 917 pending sales.

Our market isn’t “bad”; it’s simply returning to normal.

You can’t continue to have 16% annual price appreciation without pricing everyone out of the market.

If you’re a seller, the reality is that this isn’t 2013 anymore.

It’s 2014 and you have competition ~ lots of competition.

That competition means buyers have choices ~ lots of choices.

It’s not reasonable to expect your home to have 10 showings a week and sell in 30 days.

Selling a home in the Boise real estate market requires putting your home in top condition, pricing it realistically, and allowing adequate time for the right buyer to come along.

Data pertains to Ada County single-family homes on lot or acreage.  Data does not include condo or townhome properties.